The annual Clarivate Drugs to Watch report for 2024 features 13 new therapeutics with standout commercial and/or clinical potential. These new treatments hold tremendous promise to advance patient care and fuel the next generation of medical breakthroughs. Common themes for this year’s picks included:
- New drugs developed using new modalities and technologies. Among these:
- Datopotamab deruxtecan, from AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo, is emblematic of the promise of antibody drug conjugates, an emerging class of highly-targeted anticancer drugs offering hope of an alternative to grueling traditional chemotherapy regimens – in this case, for several types of breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. Clarivate data indicates a 90% probability that datopotamab deruxtecan will win marketing authorization in the United States, and projects 2029 sales of $2.7 billion for NSCLC and breast cancer combined.
- CASGEVY™/exagamglogene autotemcel from CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex Pharmaceuticals and LYFGENIA™/lovotibeglogene autotemcel from Bluebird Bio, are two novel therapies for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, inherited blood disorders for which there were previously only limited symptomatic and no curative treatments, developed using CRISPR gene-editing technologies. Clarivate projects $1.32 billion in 2029 for CASGEVY™ alone.
- Treatments for previously-untreatable or undertreated diseases are another highlight. In addition to CASGEVY™ and LYFGENIA™ for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, these include:
- ABRYSVO™/RSVPreF from Pfizer Inc and AREXVY/RSVPreF3 from GSK plc, the first vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) targeted to infants and older adults, a critical advancement in patient care for these most-vulnerable groups as public health officials and clinicians confront the “triple-demic” of COVID-19, seasonal influenza and RSV infection.
- TALVEY™/talquetamab from Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, a first-in-class bispecific antibody for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients, a difficult-to-treat group for whom most if not all treatment needs have been exhausted. Granted U.S. FDA accelerated approval in August, Clarivate projects the drug will see $850 million in sales by 2029.
- New therapeutics that may significantly reduce the burden existing treatments place on patients and clinicians. These include:
- EYLEA® HD/aflibercept from Bayer and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc, which would offer more convenient 12- and 16-week dosing for patients with wet age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema and diabetic retinopathy. Clarivate Cortellis data indicate a 75% probability of success for diabetic retinopathy in the U.S. and predict $1.77 billion in revenues for the G7 markets by 2029.
- ALTUVIIIO™/efanesoctocog alfa from Sanofi (Bioverativ Therapeutics Inc) and Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi®), the first FVIII replacement therapy for hemophilia A patients that needs only be administered once weekly. Clarivate Cortellis data indicate that there is a 95% probability of the drug being approved in the E.U., and project $1.7 billion in 2029 revenues.
In addition, the China-in-Depth team has identified seven Drugs to Watch for the Mainland China marketplace.
Trends to watch
The report also highlights key trends to watch in the coming year, including:
- The enormous impact gene editing and AI/ML are set to have on medicine, which is already becoming apparent in drug pipelines.
- The effects of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which is forcing companies to rethink their approaches to market approvals and access.
- The uneven maturation of the market for biosimilars, which has made strides, particularly in Europe, while hitting some speed bumps in the U.S.
- The potential for real world data and real-world evidence to transform drug R&D, commercialization and post-market monitoring.
“The year 2024 is shaping up to be the best of times and the worst of times for the pharma industry,” said Henry Levy, President, Life Sciences & Healthcare at Clarivate. “New modalities, underpinned by scientific breakthroughs in the past decade, are achieving clinical successes and providing treatments for patients with previously unmet medical needs. Meanwhile, externalities such as government initiatives to contain healthcare costs, the sustained high cost of capital and global geopolitical disputes are putting a brake on investor appetites for the sector.”
Methodology
To identify this year’s Drugs to Watch, Clarivate drew from the expertise of over 160 analysts covering hundreds of diseases, drugs and markets, along with 11 integrated Clarivate data sets that span the R&D and commercialization lifecycle. The analysis revealed this year’s selections which share the molecules of greatest interest for their categories among those that have either just launched (within the calendar year) or that are projected to launch within the coming year, aiming to identify:
- Drugs projected to become blockbusters ($1 billion-plus in annual revenue) within five years of launch, based on Cortellis data.
- Drugs that stand to significantly advance the standard of care for a condition and deliver big benefits to patient health.
To download the full report, please visit: https://clarivate.com/drugs-to-watch/.
